Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Both writes two articles that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
